{ "generatedAt": "2026-07-12T20:54:43.336Z", "preRegistration": "docs/19-preregistration-labor-backtest.md", "verdict": "fail", "verdictIsProvisional": false, "notes": [ "Cohorts and thresholds per docs/19 Amendment 1 (2026-07-12): validation majors {15, 27, 43}; V1 = ≥2/3 with major 43 required; F1 unchanged at ≥4/5.", "Non-gating diagnostic — sustained ≥4-quarter run overlapping the onset window but with onset OUTSIDE it: major 15 (run onset 2021-Q1), major 27 (run onset 2021-Q1), major 43 (run onset 2021-Q4), major 49 (run onset 2021-Q4), major 31 (run onset 2022-Q1), major 35 (run onset 2021-Q3). Informational only; the gating V1 rule is onset-in-window." ], "window": { "baseline": { "from": "2015-Q1", "to": "2019-Q4" }, "onset": { "from": "2022-Q4", "to": "2024-Q4" }, "magnitude": { "from": "2023-Q1", "to": "2025-Q4" }, "latestUsableQuarter": "2025-Q3", "fullStateCount": 49, "usableQuarters": [ "2015-Q1", "2015-Q2", "2015-Q3", "2015-Q4", "2016-Q1", "2016-Q2", "2016-Q3", "2016-Q4", "2017-Q1", "2017-Q2", "2017-Q3", "2017-Q4", "2018-Q1", "2018-Q2", "2018-Q3", "2018-Q4", "2019-Q1", "2019-Q2", "2019-Q3", "2019-Q4", "2020-Q1", "2020-Q2", "2020-Q3", "2020-Q4", "2021-Q1", "2021-Q2", "2021-Q3", "2021-Q4", "2022-Q1", "2022-Q2", "2022-Q3", "2022-Q4", "2023-Q1", "2023-Q2", "2023-Q3", "2023-Q4", "2024-Q1", "2024-Q2", "2024-Q3", "2024-Q4", "2025-Q1", "2025-Q2", "2025-Q3" ], "panelStates": [ "01", "04", "05", "06", "08", "09", "10", "11", "12", "13", "15", "16", "17", "18", "19", "20", "21", "22", "23", "24", "25", "27", "28", "29", "30", "31", "32", "33", "34", "35", "36", "37", "38", "39", "40", "41", "42", "44", "45", "46", "47", "48", "49", "50", "51", "53", "54", "55", "56" ], "excludedStates": [ { "state": "02", "lastQuarter": "2016-Q2" }, { "state": "26", "lastQuarter": "2021-Q4" } ] }, "thresholds": { "sigmaMultiple": 2, "minRunQuarters": 4, "v2MinDeficitPP": 5, "f2PlaceboPassRatio": 0.5, "f2PlaceboMarginalRatio": 0.75, "v1MinValidationMajors": 2, "v1RequiredSoc": "43", "f1MinFalsificationMajors": 4 }, "cohorts": { "validation": [ { "soc": "15", "label": "Computer & Mathematical (software)", "registeredFamilies": [ "15-12xx software developers & related" ] }, { "soc": "27", "label": "Arts/Design/Media", "registeredFamilies": [ "27-3xxx media, content & communications" ] }, { "soc": "43", "label": "Office & Administrative Support", "registeredFamilies": [ "43-4051 customer service representatives", "43-xxxx office & administrative support core", "43-3031 bookkeeping, accounting & auditing clerks" ] } ], "falsification": [ { "soc": "47", "label": "Construction & Extraction", "registeredFamilies": [ "47-2xxx construction trades" ] }, { "soc": "49", "label": "Installation, Maintenance & Repair", "registeredFamilies": [ "49-xxxx installation, maintenance & repair" ] }, { "soc": "31", "label": "Healthcare Support", "registeredFamilies": [ "31-xxxx healthcare support" ] }, { "soc": "35", "label": "Food Preparation & Serving", "registeredFamilies": [ "35-xxxx food preparation & serving" ] }, { "soc": "53", "label": "Transportation & Material Moving", "registeredFamilies": [ "53-xxxx transportation & material moving" ] } ], "preRegistrationAmendmentApproved": true }, "coverageByQuarter": { "2015-Q1": 49, "2015-Q2": 49, "2015-Q3": 49, "2015-Q4": 49, "2016-Q1": 49, "2016-Q2": 49, "2016-Q3": 49, "2016-Q4": 49, "2017-Q1": 49, "2017-Q2": 49, "2017-Q3": 49, "2017-Q4": 49, "2018-Q1": 49, "2018-Q2": 49, "2018-Q3": 49, "2018-Q4": 49, "2019-Q1": 49, "2019-Q2": 49, "2019-Q3": 49, "2019-Q4": 49, "2020-Q1": 49, "2020-Q2": 49, "2020-Q3": 49, "2020-Q4": 49, "2021-Q1": 49, "2021-Q2": 49, "2021-Q3": 49, "2021-Q4": 49, "2022-Q1": 49, "2022-Q2": 49, "2022-Q3": 49, "2022-Q4": 49, "2023-Q1": 49, "2023-Q2": 49, "2023-Q3": 49, "2023-Q4": 49, "2024-Q1": 49, "2024-Q2": 49, "2024-Q3": 49, "2024-Q4": 49, "2025-Q1": 49, "2025-Q2": 49, "2025-Q3": 49 }, "tests": { "v1": { "id": "V1", "passed": false, "marginal": false, "detail": "0/3 validation majors show a ≥4-quarter >2σ decline with onset in 2022-Q4–2024-Q4 (threshold ≥2; required major 43: NOT qualifying)." }, "v2": { "id": "V2", "passed": true, "marginal": false, "detail": "Mean validation cycle-adjusted deficit 16.4pp over 2023-Q1–2025-Q4 (threshold ≥5pp)." }, "f1": { "id": "F1", "passed": false, "marginal": false, "detail": "1/5 falsification majors stay quiet in the AI era (no ≥4-quarter >2σ run overlapping 2022-Q4→end; pre-2022Q4-resolved COVID runs out of scope per Amendment 3); threshold ≥4, marginal = 3." }, "f2": { "id": "F2", "passed": true, "marginal": false, "detail": "Placebo ratio (A05 deficit / entry deficit) = -0.131 over 2023-Q1–2025-Q4 (pass <0.5, marginal 0.5–0.75). 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